𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 - 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁?

The discussion is not whether we are, it is more about whether this is a “good” or a “bad” bubble (dixit Jeff Bezos). Good ones leave lasting infrastructure behind. Bad ones are just torching money for nothing.

There is actually little talk when the merry-go-round will stop - which is of course the question nobody can answer because everybody is joining in – at least to show the same investment performance as their peers.

The evidence of a market bubble is accumulating around AI, data centres, company valuations, crypto currencies etc.
Things are in fact so bad that the head of JP Morgan, Bank of England and IMF have all called the bubble in the last month.

This if of course reminiscent of the “dotcom” crash of 2000-2001 when:
⏩ Investors were peddling the concept of “New Economy” – productivity rules were supposed to have been upended and justified lofty valuations. The concept in vogue then was “growing into a valuation”. Any resemblance (for instance with OpenAI or Figure) is purely coincidental.
⏩ Nasdaq crashed by 80% - so a crash is just that: pretty violent. And investment markets freeze of the best part of 3 years.

In the aftermath of the dotcom crash, the premium went back to more tangible fundamentals: IP, revenues, profits. Any one for deeptech?

So, what can you do to protect you and your company? Post bubble explosion, only truly exceptional companies survive:
⏩ Go after markets which are worth the risk- at least $1billion or more.
⏩ Build defensible IP – a competitive moat which can be explained convincingly to investors.
⏩ Bring forward revenue streams – NREs or collaborative projects may not be what investors want, but they cover costs and more importantly prove that clients want at least try your sort of technology.
And, show profits, at least a solid (and credible) business model.

📎 Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/8d80f601-4725-489a-8d6e-39099a01f9cb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-UzV9AZKeU
https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/03/supabase-nabs-5b-valuation-four-months-after-hitting-2b/

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