𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗖 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗶𝗳𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

Think of it:

👉 SpaceX’s IPO represents virtually all the returns from VC in the last year – even if the stock price is coming under pressure of late (see below).

👉 Together, SpaceX and the upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will generate the equivalent to all VC returns in the last 25 years.

No doubt that the “power law” touted by many will have a lasting effect on the money supply end of the VC market, with more VC managers seeking the seemingly “unnatural” returns offered by AI (e.g. $100m ARR within 2 years) putting more strain on the financing of deeptech innovation.

𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗖 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁.

👉 Defence is clearly as bubble-ish as AI. It is creating an immediate pent-up demand. The key question is how much of this will be spent on “new warfare”, which will define how tech companies will fare. In the meantime, many are rushing to bulk up in an attempt to become alternative primes.

👉 Sovereignty (and resilience) has become a key driver, with each of the US, Europe and China wanting a strong tech base funded locally. You can see this is semi, AI, quantum and fusion for instance.

𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗲𝘁. Yes, Europe has progressed tremendously, even in the last couple of years, with bigger funds (thanks for European Tech Champions Initiative (European Investment Fund (EIF)) and now Europe Scaleup Fund (European Commission)); bigger rounds (partly driven by the stepped up involvement of US investors around AI); and (finally) more cross-border activity of European funds. But it remains that the European VC market is still lagging the US by the same factor of c. 1:5. And we are left with the same challenge: how to mix European funds (often public or seeded with public money – and therefore partly driven by sovereignty considerations) with US money purely preoccupied by financial returns.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 (𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹) 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘆𝗲𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀:

➡️ The generalization of AI (though open source and agentic AI) may prevail over the attempted highjacking of value creation by a few.

➡️ The stupendous valuations of AI companies is creating a vast pool of individuals willing and able to launch companies like never seen before.

📎 Sources
>https://www.eif.org/flagship-initiatives/european-tech-champions-initiative/overview>https://eic.ec.europa.eu/eic-fund/scaleup-europe-fund_en
‍> SpaceX sell-off wipes $1tn from Elon Musk’s rocket group (https://www.ft.com/content/94959f40-1874-4ece-b629-b18f43aa3ede?syn-25a6b1a6=1)
>https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/09/anthropic-openai-and-spacex-are-bigger-than-the-last-25-years-of-tech-exits/
‍>https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/big-spending-little-future-germany-is-rearming-differently-from-poland-and-the-uk/